{"id":49992,"date":"2022-08-02T06:16:59","date_gmt":"2022-08-02T06:16:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/?p=49992"},"modified":"2022-08-02T06:19:06","modified_gmt":"2022-08-02T06:19:06","slug":"many-economists-believe-that-china-will-escape-a-slowdown-similar-to-japans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/many-economists-believe-that-china-will-escape-a-slowdown-similar-to-japans\/","title":{"rendered":"Many economists believe that China will escape a slowdown similar to Japan&#8217;s"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Several economists expect that China will avoid a Japan-style stagnation \u2014 if the right policies take effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/CHINA-ECONOMY-085449.webp\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/CHINA-ECONOMY-085449-1024x640.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-49993\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/CHINA-ECONOMY-085449-1024x640.webp 1024w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/CHINA-ECONOMY-085449-300x187.webp 300w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/CHINA-ECONOMY-085449-768x480.webp 768w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/CHINA-ECONOMY-085449-600x375.webp 600w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/CHINA-ECONOMY-085449.webp 1140w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the second quarter, China&#8217;s GDP barely rose, while Covid lockdowns slowed growth. These limitations are no longer in place. Despite this, the government is awaiting a meeting of policymakers at the end of the month to discuss Covid regulations. However, even if Covid limitations are relaxed, experts believe that China still has significant development potential in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For one, the country\u2019s income levels \u2014 and theoretically spending \u2014 have much room to grow. China\u2019s per capita GDP in 2021 was less than a fifth of that in the United States, and adjusted net national income per capita was about one-seventh of that in the United States, according to World Bank data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-marketing-china wp-block-embed-marketing-china\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"B41LFcl31R\"><a href=\"https:\/\/marketingtochina.com\/understand-best-way-sell-china\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Understand the Best Way to Sell in China<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Understand the Best Way to Sell in China&#8221; &#8212; Marketing China\" src=\"https:\/\/marketingtochina.com\/understand-best-way-sell-china\/embed\/#?secret=VQlM4T97JK#?secret=B41LFcl31R\" data-secret=\"B41LFcl31R\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Macquarie&#8217;s China economist Larry Hu predicts China will keep growing between 4% and 5% over the next five to 10 years, given the country&#8217;s current catch-up status. China&#8217;s ability to transition from depending on investment to consumption for growth could have an impact on his projections, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China&#8217;s plan to unify business standards and access within the country is another area of opportunity, according to Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China in Shanghai. &#8220;Once these barriers are removed,\u2026 income can increase significantly.&#8221; She mentioned how current custom can favor a company from a nearby city over one from a different province. She cited this year as a glaring example of regional biases when different Covid rules among provinces led to inefficiency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wang stated that demand from abroad and an increase in manufacturing investment in China could support growth in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Much of the country&#8217;s official economic narrative has emphasized the &#8220;unexpected&#8221; impact of Covid and the &#8220;Russia-Ukraine conflict&#8221; while pointing out that inflationary pressures in countries such as the United States are significantly higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-marketing-china wp-block-embed-marketing-china\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"pH2O8dvmwC\"><a href=\"https:\/\/marketingtochina.com\/key-marketing-strategies-for-china-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Key Marketing Strategies for China Market <\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Key Marketing Strategies for China Market &#8221; &#8212; Marketing China\" src=\"https:\/\/marketingtochina.com\/key-marketing-strategies-for-china-market\/embed\/#?secret=OIVVTpxVrg#?secret=pH2O8dvmwC\" data-secret=\"pH2O8dvmwC\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Consumption problem<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University, &#8220;China&#8217;s version of Japan&#8217;s imbalances is even more extreme,&#8221; making it more difficult to rely on consumption for economic growth. As a result of the bursting of a stock and real estate bubble in the 1990s, Japan&#8217;s economy has stagnated, generally growing more slowly than the U.S. and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During the 1970s and 1980s, Japan grew rapidly due to an increase in exports and infrastructure investment, but by the early 1990s, the country was investing more in wasteful projects, according to Pettis. According to him, Japan has been unable to rely on its consumers to drive economic growth, primarily because the manufacturing sector has been unable to accept the necessary transition to higher wages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pettis wrote in April that China will not necessarily follow Japan&#8217;s path if China can make substantial changes to its political institutions. The most likely scenario, he said, is that China will not experience a financial or severe economic crisis, but rather &#8220;face a very long period of low growth similar to Japan.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pettis estimated that China&#8217;s GDP would grow by no more than 2 or 3 percent annually in the coming years if nonproductive investment \u2014 primarily in infrastructure and real estate \u2014 is reduced without being replaced by an equivalent source of growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Covid drag<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to China&#8217;s zero-Covid policy, many investment banks have lowered their GDP forecasts for this year to below 4 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economics Policy Commission at the China Association of Policy Science, stated, &#8220;Economists cannot resolve this issue.&#8221; According to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin remarks, this is the case.<br>Xu expressed pessimism, noting that monetary policy and fiscal policy may contribute little, and that expanding their scope would only exacerbate long-term issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This month has also seen a resurgence of problems in China&#8217;s massive real estate market, with many homebuyers refusing to pay their mortgages until developers find the means to complete apartment construction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/np_file_149107.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/np_file_149107-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-49996\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/np_file_149107-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/np_file_149107-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/np_file_149107-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/np_file_149107-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/np_file_149107-600x400.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/np_file_149107.jpeg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>A man gets tested for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at a makeshift nucleic acid testing site outside a hotel in Wuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China March 24, 2022. REUTERS\/Carlos Garcia Rawlins<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>GMA is not only a Chinese market analyst but also a Chinese digital marketing expert. If you have any questions about China or how to enter the Chinese market, feel free to contact us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/GMA-Chinese-digital-ecommerce-Agency.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" src=\"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/GMA-Chinese-digital-ecommerce-Agency-1024x441.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-49997\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/GMA-Chinese-digital-ecommerce-Agency-1024x441.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/GMA-Chinese-digital-ecommerce-Agency-300x129.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/GMA-Chinese-digital-ecommerce-Agency-768x331.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/GMA-Chinese-digital-ecommerce-Agency-600x258.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/GMA-Chinese-digital-ecommerce-Agency.jpeg 1224w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Our services include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Advertising in China<\/li><li>Baidu SEO\/SEM<\/li><li>Social media agency<\/li><li>PR<\/li><li>KOL marketing<\/li><li>many others<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Several economists expect that China will avoid a Japan-style stagnation \u2014 if the right policies take effect. In the second quarter, China&#8217;s GDP barely rose, while Covid lockdowns slowed growth. These limitations are no longer in place. Despite this, the government is awaiting a meeting of policymakers at the end of the month to discuss&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":49998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[572],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/4000.webp","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p67DXD-d0k","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49992"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49992\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49999,"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49992\/revisions\/49999"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chinesetouristagency.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}